Increasing impacts of climate change upon ecosystems with increasing global mean temperature rise |
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Authors: | Rachel Warren Jeff Price Andreas Fischlin Santiago de la Nava Santos Guy Midgley |
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Institution: | 1.Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences,University of East Anglia,Norwich,UK;2.WorldWildlife Fund U.S.,Washington,USA;3.Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences,California State University,Chico,USA;4.Systems Ecology, Institute of Integrative Biology: Ecology, Evolution, and Disease, Department of Environmental Sciences,ETH Zurich,Zurich,Switzerland;5.Global Change and Biodiversity Program,South African National Biodiversity Institute,Claremont,South Africa |
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Abstract: | In a meta-analysis we integrate peer-reviewed studies that provide quantified estimates of future projected ecosystem changes
related to quantified projected local or global climate changes. In an advance on previous analyses, we reference all studies
to a common pre-industrial base-line for temperature, employing up-scaling techniques where necessary, detailing how impacts
have been projected on every continent, in the oceans, and for the globe, for a wide range of ecosystem types and taxa. Dramatic
and substantive projected increases of climate change impacts upon ecosystems are revealed with increasing annual global mean
temperature rise above the pre-industrial mean (ΔTg). Substantial negative impacts are commonly projected as ΔTg reaches and exceeds 2°C, especially in biodiversity hotspots. Compliance with the ultimate objective of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (Article 2) requires that greenhouse gas concentrations be stabilized within a time
frame “sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change”. Unless ΔTg is constrained to below 2°C at most, results here imply that it will be difficult to achieve compliance. This underscores
the need to limit greenhouse gas emissions by accelerating mitigation efforts and by protecting existing ecosystems from greenhouse-gas
producing land use change processes such as deforestation. |
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