Sensitivity of southern African maize yields to the definition of sowing dekad in a changing climate |
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Authors: | Olivier Crespo Sepo Hachigonta Mark Tadross |
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Institution: | (1) CRA-SCA (Agricultural Research Council - Research Unit for cropping systems in dry environments), via C. Ulpiani, 5, 70125 Bari, Italy;(2) Dip. Produzione Vegetale, University of Milan, Milan, Italy;(3) Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, AL5 2JQ, UK;(4) Cranfield University, Silsoe, UK |
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Abstract: | Most African countries struggle with food production and food security. These issues are expected to be even more severe in
the face of climate change. Our study examines the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture with a view to propose
adaptation options, especially in hard hit regions. We use a crop model to evaluate the impact of various sowing decisions
on the water satisfaction index (WSI) and thus the yield of maize crop. The crop model is run for 176 stations over southern
Africa, subject to climate scenarios downscaled from 6 GCMs. The sensitivity of these simulations is analysed so as to distinguish
the contributions of sowing decisions to yield variation. We compare the WSI change between a 20 year control period (1979–1999)
and a 20 year future period (2046–2065) over southern Africa. These results highlight areas that will likely be negatively
affected by climate change over the study region. We then calculate the contribution of sowing decisions to yield variation,
first for the control period, then for the future period. This contribution (sensitivity) allows us to distinguish the efficiency
of adaptation decisions under both present and future climate. In most countries rainfall in the sowing dekad is shown to
contribute more significantly to the yield variation and appears as a long term efficient decision to adapt. We discuss these
results and additional perspectives in order to propose local adaptation directions. |
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