系统动力学在甘肃省河西地区水土资源承载力中的应用

水土资源承载力直接影响着该地区社会经济发展的可持续性。本文在系统论述水土资源承载力研究的基本原理和方法的同时，结合西北干旱区水土资源和经济发展的特点，应用系统动力学原理建立了西北干旱区水土资源承载力系统模型，并以甘肃河西地区为例，对其水土资源承协力作了系统分析研究，从而提出了该地区提高水土资源承载力的对策。

A STUDY ON WATER-SOIL CAPACITY IN NORTH WEST ARID AREA WITH SYSTEMIC DYNAMICS -A Case of HEXI Corridor, Gansu Province

The capacity of water soil affects directly the sustainable development of social economics. This paper dissertated systemically the basic principles and methods of water soil capacity, combined the characters of the water soil resource with the economic development, and built the systematic model of water soil capacity by applying the theory and method of systematic dynamics in north west arid. With the model, this article analyzed systemically the water soil capacity in HEXI corridor. Through the analysis of natural resources in Hexi area, including the analysis and evaluation of climate resources, land resources and water resources, we make out the feasibility of the agriculture in this area, the status quo of water and soil resources utilization and its potential of further utilization, then we can ascertain the standard of three input scheme. According to the analysis of real productivity, as the gist of productivity in the year of different level, we can calculate the theoretical potential productivity, and evaluate the biomass of the whole area, and then we can make out the water resources carrying capacity of population. Meanwhile, with the analysis on national population policy, we can find out the trend of population change in the future through the analysis on the population changes. Comparing the future population and the water resources carrying capacity of population, we can make out the potential capacity of population, so as to put forward the countermeasures under the premise of proper development and utilization on water and land resources in this area. As can be conclude from the analysis, there is some potential of the water and soil resources carrying capacity in Hexi area, and then put forward the measure and countermeasures of advancing the water soil capacity.