Trends in Alaska temperature data. Towards a more realistic approach

Time series of seasonal temperatures recorded in Alaska during the past eighty years are analyzed. A common practice to measure changes in the long-term pattern of temperature series is to fit a deterministic linear trend. A deterministic trend is not a realistic approach and poses some pitfalls from the statistical point of view. A statistical model to fit a latent time-varying level independent of the Pacific climate shift is proposed. The empirical distribution of temperature conditional on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is obtained. The results reveal that the switch between the negative and the positive phase leads to differences in temperatures up to 4°C in a given location and season. Differences across seasons and locations are detected. The effect of the Pacific climate shift is stronger in winter. An overall increase of temperatures is observed in the long term. The estimated trends are not constant but exhibit different patterns that vary in the sign and strength over the sample period.