Collisional evolution of the asteroid belt

A new synthesis of asteroid collisional evolution is motivated by the question of whether most asteroids larger than ∼1 km size are strengthless gravitational aggregates (rubble piles). NEAR found Eros not to be a rubble pile, but a shattered collisional fragment, with a through-going fracture system, and an average of about 20 m regolith cover. Of four asteroids visited by spacecraft, none appears likely to be a rubble pile, except perhaps Mathilde. Nevertheless, current understanding of asteroid collisions and size-dependent strength, and the observed distribution of rotation rates versus size, have led to a theoretical consensus that many or most asteroids larger than 1 km should be rubble piles. Is Eros, the best-observed asteroid, highly unusual because it is not a rubble pile? Is Mathilde, if it is a rubble pile, like most asteroids? What would be expected for the small asteroid Itokawa, the MUSES-C sample return target? An asteroid size distribution is synthesized from the Minor Planet Center listing and results of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, an Infrared Space Observatory survey, the Small Main-belt Asteroid Spectroscopic Survey and the Infrared Astronomical Satellite survey. A new picture emerges of asteroid collisional evolution, in which the well-known Dohnanyi result, that the size distribution tends toward a self-similar form with a 2.5-index power law, is overturned because of scale-dependent collision physics. Survival of a basaltic crust on Vesta can be accommodated, together with formation of many exposed metal cores. The lifetimes against destruction are estimated as 3 Gyr at the size of Eros, 10 Gyr at ten times that size, and 40 Gyr at the size of Vesta. Eros as a shattered collisional fragment is not highly unusual. The new picture reveals the new possibility of a transition size in the collisional state, where asteroids below 5 km size would be primarily collisional breakup fragments whereas much larger asteroids are mostly eroded or shattered survivors of collisions. In this case, well-defined families would be found in asteroids larger than about 5 km size, but for smaller asteroids, families may no longer be readily separated from a background population. Moreover, the measured boulder size distribution on Eros is re-interpreted as a sample of impactor size distributions in the asteroid belt. The regolith on Eros may result largely from the last giant impact, and the same may be true of Itokawa, in which case about a meter of regolith would be expected there. Even a small asteroid like Itokawa may be a shattered object with regolith cover.