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气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性研究与展望
引用本文:夏军,陈俊旭,翁建武,佘敦先,邱冰,万龙,洪思. 气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性研究与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2012, 8(6): 391-396. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.06.001
作者姓名:夏军  陈俊旭  翁建武  佘敦先  邱冰  万龙  洪思
作者单位:1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所2中国科学院大学3武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室
基金项目:国家重点基础研究973项目(2012CB956204,2010CB428406);国家自然科学基金(51279140)
摘    要:论述了气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性概念、内涵及其与适应性管理的联系;综述了水资源脆弱性定量评估方法,包括指标权重法、函数及综合指标法等;介绍了减少水资源脆弱性的适应对策研究。分析表明,联系水资源供需矛盾的水资源脆弱性既有自然变化脆弱性的一面,又有气候变化影响导致水资源供需关系发生变化以及旱涝灾害影响加剧水资源脆弱性的问题。关键是要识别影响水资源脆弱性变化的主要调控变量,通过应对气候变化的适应性对策研究,最大限度地减少水资源脆弱性。未来气候变化背景下水资源脆弱性研究,将在进一步发展脆弱性影响与评估基础上,逐步转到适应性水资源管理与对策的研究。

关 键 词:水资源  脆弱性  定量评价方法  适应性管理  
收稿时间:2012-06-25
修稿时间:2012-09-04

Advances and Future Prospects of Research in Water Resources Vulnerability Under Climate Change
Xia Jun,Chen Junxu,Weng Jianwu,She Dunxian,Qiu Bing,Wan Long,Hong Si. Advances and Future Prospects of Research in Water Resources Vulnerability Under Climate Change[J]. Progressus Inquisitiones DE, 2012, 8(6): 391-396. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.06.001
Authors:Xia Jun  Chen Junxu  Weng Jianwu  She Dunxian  Qiu Bing  Wan Long  Hong Si
Affiliation:1,2 1 Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;2 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;3 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China
Abstract:This paper addresses issues on water resource vulnerability under climate change background. The concept and connotation of water resource vulnerability and the corresponding adaptive management are presented. The quantitative evaluation methods of water resource vulnerability, mainly include the index weight method, function and integrated indicator methods. The water resource vulnerability not only has natural variability but also is affected by changes in relationship between water supply and demand resulted from climate change and the impacts of droughts and floods. The key issue is to identify the governing variables which have main influence on water resource vulnerability. For future perspective, study on water resource vulnerability will go to adaptive management.
Keywords:water resources  vulnerability  quantitative assessment method  adaptive management  
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