城市土地集约利用与经济增长的协整分析及因果关系检验——以江苏省无锡市为例

城市土地集约利用与经济增长间存在密切关系。借助Eviews5.0软件,分析了无锡市1991-2007年城市土地集约利用与经济增长间的协整关系和因果关系,发现城市土地集约利用与经济增长间存在长期的均衡关系,但短期存在失衡关系,短期失衡向长期均衡回归的速度达0.9709;长期内,经济增长对城市土地集约利用的弹性为0.2848,短期则为0.2681;无锡市城市土地集约利用与经济增长间存在单向因果关系。

Cointegration and Causality between Urban Land Intensive Utilization and Economic Growth: A Case Study of Wuxi, Jiangsu

There is a close relationship between urban land intensive utilization and economic growth.The cointegration and causality between urban land intensive utilization and economic growth of Wuxi from 1991 to 2007 was analyzed using Eviews5.0.The results showed that there was cointegration between economic growth and urban land intensive utilization in a long run,but not in a short run.The error correction model could connect the long run cointegration and short run variation and the adjusting coefficient of error correction term was 0.9709 which meant that the velocity of short run variation approaching the long run equilibrium was 0.9709.The long-term cointegration equation revealed that the economic growth elasticity of urban land intensive utilization was 0.2848,while the short-term error correction equation revealed the economic growth elasticity of urban land intensive utilization was 0.2681.The Granger test result revealed that economic growth could cause the elevation of urban land intensive utilization level,but the elevation of urban land intensive utilization level was not the causation of economic growth.