黑潮OLR距平指数与华南西部主汛期降水的关系

OLR距平场与华南西部主汛期降水的相关分析场显示,在黑潮区域有强烈的高相关信号反映。黑潮区OLR距平指数与华南主汛期降水的遥相关分析显示,前期黑潮区OLR距平指数的异常,可以成为预测主汛期降水有一定指示意义的前兆信号。并在此基础上建立主成分降维分析方法,对1989~2000年主汛期降水作预测及回代检验,检验结果准确率达75%,说明用黑潮区OLR距平指数作为预报因子可以取得良好的预报成绩。

The Relation Between The OLR Departure Index Of Black Current And The Precipitation Of The Main Flood Season In The West Of Southern China

The correlation analysis field of the OLR departure field and the precipitation of the main flood season in the west of Southern China indicate that there is strong high-coherent signals reflection in the Black Current area.The OLR departure index in Black Current area and the remote correlation analysis of the precipitation of the main flood season in Southern China indicate that the abnormality of the early stage of the OLR departure index in the Black Current area may become the omen signal which has the certain instruction significance in the forecasting of the precipitation of the main flood season.Based on the cutting-dimension analysis method of the main components,this paper has conducted the forecasts of the precipitation of the main flood season during 1989-2000 and the examination of the returning generations.The accuracy rate of examination result reaches 75%,which explains that the method can obtain the good forecast result with OLR departure index in the Black Current area as the predictors.