Recultivation of abandoned agricultural lands in Ukraine: Patterns and drivers |
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| Institution: | 1. Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany;2. Geography Department, Ivan Franko University of Lviv, Str. Doroshenka 41, 79000 Lviv, Ukraine;3. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Department of Structural Development of Farms and Rural Areas, Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany;4. Integrative Research Institute on Transformations of Human-Environment Systems (IRI THESys), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany;5. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 København K, Denmark;6. Institute of Steppe of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Science (RAS), Pionerskaya str. 11, 460000 Orenburg, Russia;1. School of Environment, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand;2. Griffith Climate Change Response Program (GCCRP) and Griffith Institute for Tourism (GIFT), Building G01, Griffith University, 4222 Queensland, Australia;1. Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States;2. SILVIS Lab, Department of Forestry and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States;3. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, United States;4. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 København K, Denmark;5. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany;1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, 11A, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;1. College of Resources and Environment, Southwest University, Chongqing 400716, China;2. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA;3. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China;4. Department Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA;5. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria;1. Institute of Geography and Spatial Management, Jagiellonian University, ul. Gronostajowa 7, 30-387 Krakow, Poland;2. Institute of Forest Resources Management, University of Agriculture in Kraków, al. 29 Listopada 46, 31-425 Kraków, Poland;3. WSL, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zuercherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. Department of Remote Sensing, Würzburg University, Am Hubland, 97074 Würzburg, Germany;2. CAREC, Almaty, Kazakhstan;3. University of Bonn, Germany |
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| Abstract: | The recent rise in agricultural commodity prices and the expectation that high price will persist have triggered a wave of farmland expansion in regions where land resources are still available. One such region is the former Soviet Union, where the collapse of socialism caused massive agricultural abandonment and where some of these lands are now being brought back into production. Yet, the extent and spatial patterns of recultivation, and what determines these patterns, remains unclear. We examined the extent of recultivation of abandoned agricultural land in Ukraine since 2007 using a new, satellite-based recultivation map and assessed the effect of biophysical and socioeconomic determinants on recultivation patterns using boosted regression trees. We found key predictors of recultivation to be related to the suitability of land for agriculture (i.e., soil quality, temperature). Accessibility to major cities was also important, with most recultivation happening closer to settlements, but this influence varied across Ukraine. Variables related to agricultural management (fertilizer input, mechanization) and demography were negligible in explaining recultivation in our analyses. These factors suggest that recultivation patterns were primarily driven by factors related to land productivity, with recultivation focusing on the most promising areas. Given the remaining large amount of unused agricultural land in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, and considering that much abandonment occurred in areas only marginally suited to agriculture, our findings provide important insights into where recultivation can be expected to happen and thus for assessing the potential socioeconomic and environmental impacts of recultivation. |
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| Keywords: | Land-use change Agricultural expansion Post-Soviet agricultural abandonment Boosted regression trees Spatial statistics MODIS |
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