Ecological risk assessment and ecological security pattern optimization in the middle reaches of the Yellow River based on ERI+MCR model

The middle reaches of the Yellow River represent an important area for the protection and development of the Yellow River Basin. Most of the area of the river basin is within the Loess Plateau, which establishes it as a fragile ecological environment. Firstly, using high-resolution data of land use in the watershed from the past 30 years, landscape ecological risk (LER) sample units are defined and an ecological risk index (ERI) model is constructed. Kriging interpolation is used to display the LER spatial patterns, and the temporal and spatial evolution of risk is examined. Secondly, the spatial evolution of land use landscape change (LULC) is analyzed, and the correlation between land use landscape and ecological risk is discussed. Finally, Based on the LER model, a risk-based minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model is established, and a comprehensive protection and management network system for the ecological source-corridor-node system designed. The results suggest that in the past 30 years, LER has a high spatial correlation and areas with extremely high ecological risks are concentrated in northwest and southeast areas of the region, of which the northwest area accounts for the highest proportion. Risk intensity is closely related to the spatial pattern of land use landscape. ERI values of forestland, grasslands, and unused land and farmland are low, medium, and high, respectively. The trend of risk evolution is “overall improvement and partial deterioration”. Man-made construction and exploitation is the most direct reason for the increase of local ecological risks. The high ecological-risk areas in the northwest are dominated by deserts which reduce excessive interference by human activities on the natural landscape. Recommendations are: high-quality farmland should be protected; forestland should be restored and rebuilt; repair and adjust the existing ecosystem to assist in landscape regeneration and reconstruction; utilize the overall planning vision of “mountain, water, forest, field, lake, grass, sand” to design a management project at the basin scale; adhere to problem-oriented and precise policy implementation.