The influence of freeze–thaw cycles of active soil layer on surface runoff in a permafrost watershed

As a result of global warming, the discharges from rivers in permafrost regions have varied significantly. However, its mechanism remains unclear. One of possible factors is active soil freeze–thaw cycle, which may influence surface runoff in the variation of permafrost water cycle processes. In this study, a typical permafrost watershed in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau was selected, its hydrological processes were monitored from 2004 to 2007, and the effects of the freezing and thawing depth of the soil active layer on runoff processes were assessed. The runoff modulus, runoff coefficient, direct runoff ratio, recession gradient and their seasonal variations were estimated and analyzed. The active soil dynamics and water budget were analyzed to prove the features of the surface runoff and the influences of active soil freeze–thaw processes. The primary factors influencing surface runoff processes during different seasons were analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and statistical regression methods. The results showed that the high runoff coefficient and low direct runoff ratio were the main characteristics during the spring flood period (May–June) and during the autumn recession period (September). The runoff modulus and its year-to-year variability were the greatest in the summer flood period. The direct runoff ratio decreased from 0.43 in May to 0.29 in September, with the exception of the highest ratio, which occurred during the summer recession period (July). The active soil thawing in the upper layer of depth of 60 cm had contributed to increase in discharge, but the increase in thawing depth deeper than 60 cm led to a decrease in surface runoff and slowness in the recession process. Precipitation played a small role in the spring flood runoff and the autumn runoff. The soil active layer freeze–thaw variation, which affected seasonal soil water dynamic and water budget and reformed seasonal runoff characteristics, along with vegetation cover changes, is considered the potential major factor in control of the hydrological processes in the permafrost region.