中国非正规经济发展格局及与城镇化的关系——基于多指标多原因(MIMIC)模型的研究北大核心CSCDCSSCI

非正规经济是世界城市化过程的普遍现象,关于它的发展态势及与城市化的关系是学界长期关注的重要问题。本文引入多指标多原因(MIMIC)模型估算中国非正规经济规模,在分析其发展空间格局的基础上,运用计量模型揭示了非正规经济与城镇化的动态关系。研究表明,2000年以来中国非正规经济不断增长,2008年后出现较快增长态势,2017年占GDP比例达到20.55%,非正规就业人员达1.59亿人。非正规经济的空间分布呈现西北-东南高、西南-东北低的不平衡特点。模型显示,中国非正规经济与人口城镇化水平存在倒U型关系,即非正规经济占整体经济的份额随城镇化水平的提高呈现先上升、后下降的变化过程,发生这一变化的城镇化水平临界值为72.48%。由此推断中国非正规经济占比还将伴随城镇化进程而继续上升,由于城镇化发展阶段的差异,不同地区的非正规经济发展态势将不同。非正规经济还受到经济发展阶段、产业结构、流动人口、国有经济和政府管制等因素的影响。本文有助于加深认识非正规经济的发展规律,为制定基于城镇化发展阶段差异的非正规经济政策提供理论依据。

Examining the development of informal economy and its relationship with the urbanization process in China using the MIMIC model

Informal economy is a prevailing phenomenon in the process of urbanization across the world. Its development trend and its relationship with urbanization have received continuous attention from academia. This paper employs the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model to estimate the size of the informal economy, characterizes its development process and spatial patterns and uses an econometric model to examine its relationship with the urbanization level in the Chinese context. Results show that the informal economy in China has grown since 2000 with a rapid growth since 2008. In 2017, the share of informal economies in GDP was 20.55% and the number of informal workers reached 159 million. The development of informal economies is spatially uneven, characterized with the higher share in northwest-southeast regions and the lower share in southwest-northeast regions. The spatial distribution of informal economies is different from the generally known spatial pattern of economic development level measured by GDP, as the latter is characterized by a gradual decrease from east to west. The model shows that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the share of informal economies and the level of urbanization in China, indicating that the informal economy increases first and then decreases with the development of urbanization. It is further shown that when urbanization rate rises to 72.48% the informal economy share would turn to a decreasing trend from an increasing one. Given that the urbanization level was 58.52% in 2017, it is argued that the informal economy in China will continue to grow with urbanization until 2030, in which the urbanization rate is predicted to rise to above 70%. Moreover, given provincial differences in the urbanization level in China, it is suggested that the informal economy in different regions is likely to have different development trends. Our model further shows that the growth of informal economies is related to multiple factors including GDP per capita, the share of the tertiary industry, the share of floating population, state-owned economies and state regulation. This paper enhances the understanding of the development dynamics of informal economies by revealing its long-term relationship with urbanization, and providing an empirical basis for formulating region-differentiated policy responses to informal economies.