山东省耕地数量变化及驱动力分析

根据50余年的序列统计资料，对山东省耕地数量变化进行了分析，结果表明在1949--2005年间山东省耕地总量大致经历了增长、波动、递减3个阶段，人均耕地基本上呈逐年递减趋势，鲁中和山东半岛地区比鲁西地区变化明显。通过主成分分析方法，揭示出经济发展、人口增长和农业科技进步是影响山东省耕地数量变化的3大因素，并提出了合理保护耕地的对策。

Study on Variation and Driving Forces of Cultivated Land in Shandong Province

Based on the analysis of statistical datas in the last 50 years, the variation of cultivated land quantity in Shandong province is studied. It is showed that the total amount of cultivated land in Shandong province approxi- mately have experienced increasing stage, fluctuating stage and decreasing stage from 1949 to 2004. The average personal cultivated land has a decreasing trend year by year. It is found that the middle part of Shandong province and the peninsula area have obvious variation than in the west part of Shandong province. By using the component analysis method, economy development, population growth and the agricultural scientific advance are three impor- tant driving factors which affected the variation of cultivated land in Shandong province. On this basis, reasonable countermeasures to protect cultivated land are put forward in this paper.