Earthquake Forecasting Using Hidden Markov Models

This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock within 1, 5, and 10 days in the entire study region or in specific subregions and are based on the observations available at the forecast time, namely the interevent times and locations of the previous mainshocks and the elapsed time since the most recent one. Hidden Markov models have been applied to many problems, including earthquake classification; this is the first application to earthquake forecasting.