| 新疆阿勒泰地区山绵羊死亡率灰色马尔柯夫预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯定原,吕新,罗先平. 新疆阿勒泰地区山绵羊死亡率灰色马尔柯夫预测[J]. 南京气象学院学报, 1995, 0(1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯定原 吕新 罗先平 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京气象学院应用气象学系，新疆石河子农学院农学系 |
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| 摘 要： | 灰色ＧＭ（１，１）预测与马尔柯夫预测的优点可以相互补充，将两者结合起来对随机性和波动性较大的数据序列进行预测，精度更高。本文采用灰色与马尔柯夫两种预测的组合模型，对新疆阿勒泰地区山绵羊死亡率的时间序列进行了分析，并预测了１９９２的可能死亡率情况，为该地区畜牧业生产发展和防灾减灾提供了科学依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 山绵羊死亡率，灰色马尔柯夫链，模型，预测 |
ALETAI GOAT/SHEEP MORTALITY RATE FORECASTING BY GRER-MARKOV MODEL |
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| Feng Dingyuan. ALETAI GOAT/SHEEP MORTALITY RATE FORECASTING BY GRER-MARKOV MODEL[J]. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 1995, 0(1) |
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| Authors: | Feng Dingyuan |
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| Abstract: | A combination of grey GM(1,1) with Markov predictiori medels is advantangeous inforecasting more accurately a sequence of greater stochasticity and fluctuation, The combinedversion, called the grey-Markov prediction model,is employed for investigating a time series ofAletai goat/sheep mortality rate and forecasting the misfort une in the years to follow, thusproviding a scientific basis for the graziery and d isaster pervention/reduction over Aletai ofXinjiang Province. |
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| Keywords: | goat/sheep mortality rate grey Markov chain model forecasting |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
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