基于WRF/CMAQ的成都空气质量模拟与预报

本文是成都地区空气质量预报的一次模拟试验,文章通过污染源排放清单编制、不同模式下垫面资料使用、气象模式大气物理过程参数选取、以及成都地区空气质量实例模拟预报几个方面来开展工作。分析结果表明:使用新下垫面资料对SO₂、NO₂的模拟结果的统计结果均好于旧下垫面资料;选出了适合于成都地区的气象模式物理过程参数方案;受外地源影响较小的NO₂与PM₁₀的模拟预报效果比受外地源影响较大的SO₂模拟预报效果好;清单编制过程中对污染物排放的时间分配因子把握不精确造成了预报趋势与监测值趋势存在差异;对污染源排放量的低估是造成预报值普遍小于监测值的重要原因,同时未考虑外源的输入影响,以及用监测值的点均值来验证预报值的面均值,也是造成预报值与监测值存在明显差异的主要原因。 

Air Quality Numerical Simulation and Forecasting for Chengdu Based on WRF/CMAQ Model

An air quality numerical forecasting test was conducted for the Chengdu area,Sichuan Province,which explored several respects including preparing emission inventory data,testing different land use data,parameterized experiment for meteorological physical parameters and air quality forecasting. The result shows that the simulation of SO₂ and NO₂based on MODIS land use data are more valuable than the USGS ones. A suitable meteorological physical parameters scheme was found for Chengdu area. The result also indicates that the predictions of NO₂ and PM₁₀ whom were relatively less influenced by outside source emission have better simulations than that of SO₂. Due to the inaccuracy of time distribution parameters,there are significant differences between the temporal trends of simulation results and the monitoring results. Furthermore,underestimating the emission causes the simulation forecasting results to be less than monitoring results. Not considering the outside source emission and using of the point monitoring averaging value rather than area value to evaluate area simulations all contributed to the obvious differences between the simulation forecasting and monitoring results.