FORECAST ON FUTURE LEVEL OF ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA

China is a country in the period of economy takeoff. We cannot use the common method to forecast its fu-ture economy level. This paper establishes an economic level forecast model of the countries whose economy is in the takeoff because of the stimulation of model country. The enlightenment of the model is from physics. If there are two sub-stances, A and B, and a medium between them, according to physics, when substance A is hotter than B, B‘ s tempera-ture will inevitably rise and close to that of A. Thus, this system tends to be a state of balance. Three factors affect heatconduction between substance A and B. They are the difference of temperature between two substances, the conductivityof medium and the characteristics of themselves. The model is testified through two examples. And then we forecast theeconomic development level of China in long term. This paper raises a model to solve the problem of research approaches.However, since there are some limitations on data source, problems will appear. For example, in certain years, our fore-cast results do not suit the real situation. But in the long term, the tendency is accurate. Then this model can be amendedin accordance with different situations.

Forecast on future level of economy development of China

China is a country in the period of economy takeoff. We cannot use the common method to forecast its future economy level. This paper establishes an economic level forecast model of the countries whose economy is in the take off because of the stimulation of model country. The enlightenment of the model is from physics. If there are two substances, A and B, and a medium between them, according to physics, when substance A is hotter than B, B’s temperature will inevitably rise and close to that of A. Thus, this system tends to be a state of balance. Three factors affect heat conduction between substance A and B. They are the difference of temperature between two substances, the conductivity of medium and the characteristics of themselves. The model is testified thrugh two examples. And then we forecast the economic development level of China in long term. This paper raises a model to solve the problem of research approaches. However, since there are some limitations on data source, problems will appear. For example, in certain years, our forecast results do not suit the real situation. But in the long term, the tendency is accurate. Then this model can be amended in accordance with different situations. Foundation Item: Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 70071039); Subsidized Plan for University Backbone Teacher of Ministry of Education (No. 1000). Biography: WANG Dian-hai(1962 - ), male, a native of Da’an County of Jilin Province, professor, Ph. D. advisor. His research interests include communication planning and controlling. E-mail: wangdh@jlu.edu.cn