对近年来地震危险区预测效果的评估

采用R值评分方法，对中国地震局地球物理研究所2001—2004年度划定的全国地震危险区进行了评估，2001—2004年度的R值分别为0．265、0．182、0．293、0．404。近两年的R值相对高些，为了排除随机成分，做了相应的随机预报试验检验，并对地震落入危险区的随机概率作了估计。结果表明，4个年度的R值明显高于随机预报，除2002年度外，地震随机落入危险区的概率很低，不到2％。这说明中国地震局地球物理研究所实际地震危险区划分取得了一定的效果，且逐年提高。

Evaluation of Earthquake Risk Regions in Recent Years

We apply a scheme of R score to evaluate the annual earthquake risk regions identified by Institute of Geophysics, CEA from 2001 to 2004.The R scores for 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 are 0.265, 0.182, 0.293, 0.404 respectively. The R scores for the last two years are relatively higher. The random guess tests have been conducted, and the probabilities for earthquakes to randomly drop into the earthquake risk regions are calculated. The results show that the R scores for the earthquake risk regions of these four years are greater than ones for random guess tests, and the random probability, except for 2002, is less than 2%.It is shown that the annual risk regions carried out by Institute of Geophysics are significant in practice.