渤、黄海生态环境模拟的参数敏感度空间差异分析

随着海洋生态系统模型的发展，生态变量增多，众多生物过程参数量值的确定成为制约生态环境模拟的瓶颈问题，生态系统结构区域性要求模型中的生态参数具有区域差异。为探究不同海区的关键参数及参数敏感度的空间差异，本研究在渤、黄海建立了ROMS-CoSiNE物理–生物耦合的高分辨率生态系统模型，并对13种生态参数的敏感度空间分布进行分析。结果表明:南黄海中部与渤海及近岸海域的敏感度差异较大。渤海敏感度最大的参数为决定光合速率的浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率，其次为浮游动物捕食半饱和常数和浮游动物最大捕食率。而南黄海中部敏感度最大的参数为浮游动物最大捕食率，其次为浮游植物死亡率和浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率。结合敏感度分布及浮游植物生物量收支得出，渤海水体透明度较南黄海偏低、浮游植物生长光限制较强，是引起浮游植物P-I曲线初始斜率敏感度在渤海高于黄海的主要原因。浮游动物最大捕食率及浮游植物死亡率的敏感度空间差异，受渤、黄海浮游植物生物量差异的影响，与生态系统中的高度非线性特征有关。

Spatial variability of parameter sensitivity in the ecosystem simulation of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea

As the development of marine ecosystem models, the number of biological parameters increases, which consequently causes determination of these parameters to become a bottleneck in ecosystem modeling. Intrinsic regional characteristics of the ecosystem require spatial variability of biological parameters. To explore spatial difference of key parameters and their sensitivity, a highly resolved physical-biological ecosystem model ROMS-CoSiNE of the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea is established. Sensitivity analysis of thirteen biological parameters indicates that strong difference in sensitivity exist between the south center Yellow Sea, the Bohai Sea and it''s coastal areas as well. The most sensitive parameter in the Bohai Sea is the initial slope of P-I curve. The second and third are the half saturation constant for zooplankton grazing and the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton. For the south Yellow Sea, the most sensitive parameters are the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton, the death rate of phytoplankton and the initial slope of P-I curve. Based on sensitivity distribution and phytoplankton budget, it is concluded that the low transparency in the Bohai Sea and high transparency in the Yellow Sea are mainly responsible for spatial difference of sensitivity relative to the initial slope of P-I curve. Spatial difference of sensitivity relative to the maximum specific growth rate of zooplankton and the death rate of phytoplankton, is affected by phytoplankton amount difference between the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, and related to high nonlinearity in the ecosystem.