基于灰色系统西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度预测模型的构建

阿根廷滑柔鱼（Illex argentinus）是西南大西洋鱿钓渔业的主要作业鱼种，对资源丰度进行准确的预测可指导企业合理安排渔业生产。因此，本研究根据2000-2016年我国西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的生产数据，以单位捕捞努力量的渔获量（Catch per unit effort， CPUE）为阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度的指标，利用灰色绝对关联分析和灰色预测建模的方法（GM（0， N）），计算2001-2015年CPUE的时间序列值与产卵期（6-8月）产卵场海表面温度（Sea surface temperature， SST）时间序列值的灰色绝对关联度，选取产卵场海域中灰色绝对关联度大于0.90的海区SST建立资源丰度预测模型，并用2016年实际CPUE进行验证。灰色绝对关联分析表明，6-8月，30°~40°S，45°~60°W海域内存在若干海区的SST与次年对数CPUE时间序列呈现较强的关联度，可作为预报因子。GM（0， N）模型结果表明，以6-8月产卵场SST作为环境因子建立的模型4能较好地拟合出阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度变动趋势，与2016年真实值相比，相对误差为7%，该模型可较好地作为阿根廷滑柔鱼资源丰度的预测模型。相反，包含6月和7月SST的模型1效果优于不包含6月SST的模型2或不包含7月SST的模型3，拟合得到的2016年的数据与真实值相比，相对误差分别为128%和289%，这说明6月和7月是西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼的主要产卵月份。

Prediction of abundance index of Argentine shortfin squid in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean based on grey system model

Illex argentinus is the main fishing target in the southwest Atlantic. The accurate prediction of resource abundance can guide enterprises to arrange fishery production rationally. In this study, based on the fishing data of Illex argentinus in southwest Atlantic from 2001-2016, we computed the grey absolute correlation degree between the logarithmic CPUE sequence in the following year and SST sequence in the spawning ground from June to August . And we selected the points which the grey absolute correlation index was greater than 0.90 as the forecasting factors, and then a CPUE forecast of Illex argentinus in southwest Atlantic was established, and used the actual CPUE in 2016 to verify the model. The grey correlation analysis shows that there are a large number of points have strong grey correlation index between SST and CPUE sequence from June to August in the region 30°~40°S,45°~60°W. Results suggest that GM (0, 4) model, which includes average SST from June to August, has the best model effect. The relative error is 7%,which can be used in the prediction of resources abundance of Illex argentinus in the southwest Atlantic. In contrast, the GM (0, 3) does not include the spawning area''s mean SST in June and in July, which relative errors are 128% and 289% respectively. This suggests June and July are the main spawning months for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic Ocean.