Geologic risk, economic assessment, and optimal decision making of petroleum plays in the Bohaiwan Basin, northern China |
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Authors: | Gongyang Chen Gongquan Li Zezhong Wang |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Geology, Jianghan Petroleum Institute, Jingzhou, 434102 Hubei, China |
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Abstract: | A system of play (trap) assessment based on the analysis of geological characteristics of five different types of petroleum
plays in the Bohaiwan Basin, northern China, is proposed. The system makes use of conditional probability, fuzzy logic, and
Monte Carlo simulation to assess geologic risk for estimating the undiscovered petroleum resources in a region. Combining
the estimates of undiscovered resources with the subsequent economic evaluation of discovered resources by using techniques
of optimization, the expected monetary value can be estimated to determine the overall benefits of an investment. A software
program has been developed to carry out the calculations. |
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Keywords: | Petroleum play petroleum trap resource assessment geological risk optimal decision Bohaiwan Basin |
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