| 河道洪水预报的可靠性研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李纪人 章四龙. 河道洪水预报的可靠性研究[J]. 水科学进展, 1995, 6(4): 325-330 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李纪人 章四龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.河海大学水资源水文系 南京 210098; |
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| 摘 要： | 把河道洪水预报方案与可靠性分析方法结合起来,对预报可靠性作了分析。分析了预报中的不确定性来源以及在率定模型中对它们的处理,应用可靠性分析方法评价了各种不确定性对预报结果的影响,估算了超过目标洪峰流量的概率,对预报结果作了定量的可靠性分析。
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| 关 键 词： | 河道 洪水预报 可靠性分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 1994-04-12 |
Reliability Study on Flood Forecasting in River Channel |
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| Li Jiren,Zhang Silong. Reliability Study on Flood Forecasting in River Channel[J]. Advances in Water Science, 1995, 6(4): 325-330 |
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| Authors: | Li Jiren Zhang Silong |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Hohai University, Nanjing 210098;2.Water Resources Information Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, 13eijing 100761 |
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| Abstract: | Combining channel flood forecasting scheme with reliability analysis methods,the paper studies the reliability analysis for flood forecasting.It analyses sources of uncertainty and treatment in calibrated madel,evaluates the effect of various uncertainties on forecasting,estimates the probabilities exceeding target peak discharges and makes quantitative reliability analysis for forecasting results. |
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| Keywords: | river channel flood forecasting reliability analysis |
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