| 分县逐日滚动MOS预报模式研制及其应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 范淦清,朱双,等.分县逐日滚动MOS预报模式研制及其应用[J].气象科学,2001,21(4):392-398. |
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| 作者姓名： | 范淦清 朱双 |
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| 作者单位： | 江苏省气象台, |
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| 摘 要： | 本文介绍了江苏分县逐日滚动1－5天时效的MOS预报的研制，包括降水的概率MOS法和量级MOS法，预报量设置、季节分型和样本选择，因子的构造及其加工，概率统计模型的选择及其因子预选、筛选。最后介绍了MOS工具在省台MICAPS平台上的业务应用及其效果。
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| 关 键 词： | 分县MOS 逐日滚动预报 MICAPS平台 降水概率 季节分型 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000年9月12日 |
THE STUDY AND APPLICATION OF DAY TO DAY MOS FORECAST OF SECTORIZED COUNTY |
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| Fan Ganqing,Zhu Shuang Han Guirun,Che Dequn.THE STUDY AND APPLICATION OF DAY TO DAY MOS FORECAST OF SECTORIZED COUNTY[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2001,21(4):392-398. |
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| Authors: | Fan Ganqing Zhu Shuang Han Guirun Che Dequn |
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| Abstract: | The study of day to day MOS forecast of sectorized county in 1 5 days of Jiangsu is introduced in the article.It encloses the probability and ordering MOS methods of precipitation,the selection of forecast factors and sample,the design of forecast order,the separate pattern in season and the selection of probability and staitistics model.The professional application and effect of this MOS forecast method in MICAPS platform of provincial station is also introduced in the end. |
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| Keywords: | MOS of sectorized county Day to day forecast MICAPS platform |
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