1951—2008年北京极端天气事件分析

采用湖南14个地市州所在地国家气象站1980—2013年逐分钟降雨资料, 分别利用模糊识别法、芝加哥法、Pilgrim & cordery法及同频率法对各地短历时60 min、90 min、120 min、150 min、180 min以5 min为单位时段的暴雨雨型进行了识别和推求, 结果表明:推求的各地暴雨雨型基本以峰值在前部的单峰型为主; 芝加哥、Pilgrim & cordery计算的峰值、强度相当, 推求的各历时暴雨雨型基本一致, 也更接近实际, 同频率法相对来说效果较差些。

Rainfall temporal patterns for design floods

Based on fuzzy recognition method, Chicago method, Pilgrim & Cordery method and same frequency method, the minute by minute rainfall data at 14 National Meteorological Stations in Hunan Province from 1980 to 2013 are used to identify and investigate the rainstormpattern within short durations of 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180 min.The results show that nearly all the rainstorm patterns in Hunan Provincepresent a single-peak pattern, in which the rainfall peak is located in the front of rainfall period.Although the method and principle of Chicago method and Pilgrim & Cordery method are different, the calculated rainfall peak intensities are similar.Most of the rainstorm patterns forall duration rainfalls investigated by both methods are consistent with each other, and closer to reality than by other methods.The same frequency method is less effective than the Chicago method and Pilgrim & Cordery method.