过去2000年温度集成重建研究:进展与展望

过去2000年气候变化研究是全球气候变化研究的核心内容，不仅可以提供20世纪气候增暖的自然背景，也是最终揭示20世纪气候变暖机理并预估未来气候变化趋势的关键途径，是国际大型计划（如PAGES，过去全球变化研究计划）的优先研究时段。近20多年来，特别是近几年，随着代用资料的不断积累和气候重建方法的改进和发展，过去2000年大尺度气候重建研究取得了长足发展，在区域和北半球气候集成重建方法，年际、年代、百年乃至千年时间尺度上的气候时空变化特征和机制，及最近几十年气候增暖的历史地位等方面的研究均取得了重要科学认识，形成了现代气候增暖机理和未来气候趋势预估的科学基础。本文主要从方法学、研究历史回顾和现阶段形成的科学认识等3个方面论述过去2000年气候变化研究取得的成就，并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。

Temperature reconstructions of last millennium and common era climate variations:Present status and future prospects

Integration of climate proxies and development of hemisphere-scale temperature reconstructions of the past millennium has been the focus of global change research. It not only helps to place contemporary climate variability in a long-term perspective, but also to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of long-term climate variability and relevant forcing mechanisms of long-term and recent climate changes. Large-scale millennial length regional and Northern Hemisphere climate reconstructions have made considerable progress over the past 20 years, especially in recent years. This is mainly represented by the gradual development of new datasets, the improvement of reconstruction methods, scientific knowledge of spatio-temporal characteristics and its driving mechanism of climate variability on various timescales from annual to millennial, and the diagnosis of historical status of climate warming in the last decades. The scientific basis of knowledge of ongoing warming mechanism and future climate projections of the 21st century are forming. We summarized the achievements of last millennium and Common Era climate reconstructions with respect to methodologies for last millennium climate reconstructions, research history and present scientific knowledge of climate variability at decadal to centennial timescales, and suggested future research directions.