昆仑山口西8.1级地震前的地震活动图像演变特征

基于1900年以来仪器记录到的中国及边邻地区8级地震，讨论了中国大地震重复、集中发生的阶段性和周期性。依据构造块体、活动构造带，分析了大区域范围内不同时段8级地震跳跃迁移轮回。根据8级地震活动的周期性、阶段性及其迁移轮回初步预判，中国西部在数年内仍然存在发生M≥7.8地震的危险性，中长周期大地震浩劫或不可避免。

Characteristics of space-time activity of magnitude 8 earthquakes in China

Based on the recorded earthquakes with magnitude of 8 in China and adjacent areas since 1900, this paper discusses the stages and periodicity of the repeated and concentrated occurrence of large earthquakes in China. Using the feature of the tectonic blocks and active tectonic zones, the leaps and migrations of the earthquakes with magnitude of 8 in the large area are analyzed. According to the characteristics of the earthquake activity cycle and phases of migration and transmigration, the results show that earthquakes with more than magnitude of 8 still exist in a few years, and the long period earthquake catastrophe is unavoidable in western region of the China.