我国的主要气象灾害及其经济损失

根据《中国统计年鉴(2014)》《中国水旱灾害公报(2014)》《中国气象灾害年鉴》《中国气象年鉴》等资料，利用统计方法和综合分析法，对1995—2014年(近20 a)影响我国农业生产的主要气象灾害的变化趋势及其原因进行了分析。结果表明:我国农业受灾面积和成灾面积总体呈下降趋势，其中暴雨洪涝和干旱造成的农业受灾面积波动较大，重大以上洪涝灾害5 a一遇，重大以上旱灾10 a一遇，风雹灾害和冷冻灾害总体变化不大；大气环流异常造成的年降雨量时空分布不均是导致我国农业暴雨洪涝和干旱灾害变化的主要气象原因；加强气象灾害防御工程建设，不断发挥气象灾害预警作用，科学实施退耕还林工程，调整农业生产布局，既是保证我国农业不断适应气候变化、避免或减轻气象灾害的有效措施，也是近20 a来我国农业气象灾害面积总体呈下降趋势的社会原因。

Analysis on variation tendency and cause of China's agrometeorological hazards in the latest 20 years

Based on data from the China Statistical Yearbooks (2014), the Bulletin of Flood and Drought Disasters in China (2014), the China's Meteorological Disaster Yearbook, and the China Meteorological Yearbook, etc., we have conducted an analysis of the variation tendency and cause of main meteorological disasters affecting the agricultural production in China from 1995 to 2014 using statistical and comprehensive analysis methods. The results indicate that there are overall decreasing trends in both affected areas and injured areas of China's agriculture. The areas affected by rainstorm floods and droughts present a greater fluctuation with major flood occurring once every 5 years and major drought once every 10 years, while the damage areas of hail and frost only present a small changes. The uneven temporal and spacial distribution of annual rainfall caused by atmospheric circulation anomaly is the key reason for flood and drought disasters affecting China's agricultural production. The research proposes that the effective measures for ensuring agricultural production in the climate-changing context and abating meteorological disasters would lie in the accelerated development of meteorological disasters prevention projects, the further exploitation of disaster warning systems, the rational conversion of farmlands into forests, as well as the adjustment of the agricultural production layout, which is also the social reason for the overall declining trend of damage areas of agro-meteorological disasters in China in last 20 years.