Decadal-scale variation in COD and DIN dynamics during the summer in the inner area of the Ariake Sea,Japan

More than 30 years of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) data for the inner area of the Ariake Sea were analyzed with a box model to show the changes in the average seasonal budget and the decadal-scale variation during the summer. The COD peaked in August and March on average. This summertime peak can be explained by an enhanced riverine load and increased primary production. The peak in March suggested additional organic matter production. There were also two peaks in DIN concentration on average: a summertime peak that could be explained by an enhanced riverine load, and a peak in December that was more complicated to explain. From the 1970s to the early 1990s, the bottom water in this area became increasingly hypoxic due to increased COD during the summer, even though there were minimal increases in terrestrial COD and nutrient loads and there were tidal flats covering a widespread area during this period. The increase in COD was caused by increased net ecosystem production, which was due to enhanced primary production induced by an increased freshwater residence time and decreased bivalve grazing. There was a negative feedback control in which hypoxia progressively increased, leading to declines in bivalve biomass, which in turn decreased the grazing pressure limiting primary production, meaning that primary production increased and the area became even more hypoxic. The net DIN production decreased during the 1980s and the 1990s. This was consistent with the change in net ecosystem production according to the COD.