新疆且末绿洲土地利用变化机制与驱动力分析

土地利用与覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要组成部分，干旱区土地利用与覆盖变化的机制与驱动力又是干旱地区相关问题研究的核心。新疆且末绿洲特殊的MODS背景，制约着LUCC的一系列过程及其规律。LUCC是各种自然、社会、政治、经济和文化因素相互作用的结果。驱动力类型与特征受绿洲时空特征的制约而表现出不同的特征。在区域尺度上，且末绿洲LUCC的自然驱动力，包括了相关区域地壳运动、冰川变化、风沙活动等自然作用过程，热量、降水、温度变化等的气候过程以及地表径流、冰川进退等引起的水文过程的作用。在特定生产力发展水平下，人类的社会经济活动直接影响了LUCC的演变过程及演变趋势。

Analysis on the Mechanism and Driving Forces of Land Use/cover Change in the Qiemo Oasis, Xinjiang

Land use/cover change(LUCC) is an important component part in researching global change,and the mechanism and driving forces of LUCC in arid areas are the cores of researching the related issues in arid areas.The peculiar MODS background in the Qiemo Oasis of Xinjiang affects a series of processes and laws of LUCC.LUCC is an interaction result of natural,social,political,economic and cultural factors.The types and characteristics of the driving forces of LUCC are affected by the temporal and spatial features of the oasis.On the regional scale,the natural driving forces of LUCC in the Qiemo Oasis include the natural processes(such as the related regional crustal movement,glacial change and occurrence of sand drift disasters),climatic processes(such as the solar radiation,precipitation and air temperature) and hydrological processes(such as the change of surface runoff and glacier advance or retreat).Under a specific productivity development level,human activities affect directly the evolution process and trend of LUCC.In the Qiemo Oasis,the frangibility of the ecological environment forms because the oasis is located in the Tarim Basin,an extremely arid area,the stability of both natural ecosystems and artificial ecosystems is low,and these ecosystems are sensitive to human activities and the change of surface runoff.It is considered that the irrational exploitation and utilization of natural resources are the main artificial factors affecting LUCC in the Qiemo Oasis,and the rapid population growth is an important revulsive factor affecting LUCC in the oasis.