全球实施碳税政策对碳减排及世界经济的影响评估

该研究模拟了全球各区域2008-2050年的经济发展和碳排放状况，并将该模拟结果设定为基准情景。在基准情景中全球GDP随时间增长，而全球的碳排放同样表现出增长趋势。为了模拟碳税政策的减排效应及其对经济的影响，本文构建了其他3种碳税政策情景。情景1，将碳税收入作为一般性财政收入，此时全球升温减缓，世界碳排放下降显著，但中国、印度、俄罗斯、马来西亚和印度尼西亚等发展中国家经济发展严重受创，世界经济不均衡加剧。情景2，将各区域的碳税收入汇总之后按照比例统一分配，该情景下，世界碳减排规模较情景1略有下降，但世界各区域的经济较基准情景得到更好的发展。情景3，碳税税率随时间阶段性增长，此时，碳税政策对全球升温的控制更显著；世界各区域，尤其是发展中国家（地区），经济增长更迅速。另外，碳税收入用来提升区域技术进步，在一定程度上促进了产业的优化升级。碳税政策与技术进步的协同减排政策，考虑了区域经济发展的不均衡性，兼顾了气候治理的公平性，是一种有效、可行的全球气候治理政策。

The Impact Assessment of Global Carbon Tax Policy on Carbon Emission and the World Economy

The study simulated the world’s regional economic development and carbon emissions from 2008 to 2050 and set this simulation results as a benchmark. To simulate abatement effect of carbon tax and its impact on the economy, this paper constructed the other three kinds of carbon tax policy. In scenario 1, the carbon tax revenues were used as regional revenue. In this scenario, global warming slowed down and the world’s carbon emissions decreased significantly. At the same time, some regions’ economic development was damaged severely, especially developing countries, such as China, India and Russia. In scenario 2, we distributed the carbon revenues in accordance with the proportion. The world’s carbon emissions fell more slightly in scenario 2 than in scenario 1, while the regional economy got better development. The carbon tax rate grew with time in scenario 3 and the control effect of carbon tax policy on global warming was more significant than other scenarios. The economies of regions, especially in developing regions, got more rapid growth. In addition, the carbon tax revenues using to improve regional technology promoted and upgraded the industry construct. In conclusion, coordinated policies of carbon tax policy and technical progress, which balance the regional economies, are a kind of effective and feasible global climate governance policy.