中国天山积雪对气候变化响应的多通径分析

基于天山山区1961-2013年60个气象站点实测气温、降水、相对湿度、日照时数和积雪深度等气候资料，结合时间序列分析、空间分析以及通径分析等方法，全面精确地获取了天山山区气候变化特征以及气候变化对积雪的通径影响。结果表明：天山山区气候变化显著，主要表现为整体增暖、局部变湿与黯化；气候变暖导致天山山区固态降水（降雪）保证率明显降低，尤其是低海拔区域。各气象要素对积雪不仅存在直接的单因素影响而且各气象要素之间还存在间接的相互交叉、相互联结的多因素影响。单因素影响通径分别为气温、降水和日照时数对积雪深度的3条直接影响通径；多因素影响通径分别为气温、降水和日照时数通过相互之间的内在关系对积雪深度产生的6条间接影响通径。最终结果表明气温是积雪变化的主要影响因素，其影响效应远远大于降水和日照时数的影响。

Muti-Paths Impact from Climate Change on Snow Cover in Tianshan Mountainous Area of China

Based on data of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, sunshine hours, and maximum snow depth during 1961-2013 from 60 meteorological stations located in Tianshan mountainous area, this paper analyzed the change of climatic factors above using time series analysis and spatial analysis method. Path analysis was used to explore the impact of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine hours on snow depth. The results showed that the climate in Tianshan mountainous area had changed a lot significantly during 1961-2013. Its main features included the significant increase of temperature and precipitation, the local increase or decrease of relative humidity, local diming for the decrease of sunshine hours and local increase of maximum snow depth. To some degree, climate warming can reduce the assurance rate of snowfall in Tianshan mountainous area. Temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours impacted on snow depth by 9 influence paths including 3 direct influence paths and 6 indirect influence paths. Direct influence paths of 3 were from temperature, precipitation and sunshine hours to snow depth directly, respectively. And 6 indirect influence paths were from temperature to precipitation to snow depth, from temperature to sunshine hours to snow depth, from precipitation to temperature to snow depth, from precipitation to sunshine hours to snow depth, from sunshine hours to temperature to snow depth and from sunshine hours to precipitation to snow depth, respectively. It was showed that the overall effect of temperature on snow was far greater than the influence of precipitation and sunshine hours.