Numerical modelling and analysis of temperature controlled density currents in Tomales Bay, California

The coastal region adjacent to Tomales Bay, California is dominated by wind-driven upwelling during spring and summer and the cold, upwelled water is moved towards Tomales Bay, entering the estuary with the flood tide. If the tidal excursion is ≥6 km and the cold water subducts beneath the warmer, less dense estuarine water, a temperature controlled density current may form and intrude towards the head of the estuary as a thermally stratified bottom layer. The numerical modelling was aimed at determining the capability of the Delft3D-FLOW model to reproduce the cold ocean water intrusion events, the response (development and progression) of these intrusions to differing physical scenarios and the comparative importance of the parameters to the intrusions. The numerical model successfully reproduced the density intrusions and showed that the persistence and break down of the density intrusions were affected by a number of physical parameters, to varying degrees. The sensitivity analysis showed that density intrusion formation is controlled by tidal conditions and ocean water temperature. The strength and persistence of the developed density intrusions are influenced by wind, insolation and estuary depth. Fresh water inflow at the head of the estuary had no impact on the density intrusions. Three-dimensional numerical modelling is thus a valuable tool in understanding the estuary and its functioning.