A GIS-based study toward forecast of suburban forest change

At a time when the concept of ‘human and environmental symbiosis’ has taken on much significance, protection of suburban forests (i.e. forests adjacent to or near developed areas) is a topic that has drawn much attention. Suburban forests have, since ancient times, been places where people have gathered firewood and cultured trees. As a result, the vegetation of suburban forests is only partially natural and continues to change as the forms of human activity in and around them changes. Accurate forecasts of how suburban forests will change are, therefore, an important element in the debate over how to protect them. In this study, a suburban forest was analyzed with laser radar sensing, multi-spectrum scanning, digital photogrammetry analysis, aerial photograph interpretation, and a field survey. Data gathered using these techniques were compiled on a GIS to forecast future changes in the forest. Aerial photographs taken over the past 50 years were analyzed to illuminate changes in the forest over that period. Specifically, comparisons of precise Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) measured by using digital photogrammetry workstations made it possible to estimate growth in forest height. The possible future conversion of such results to estimates of amounts of carbon dioxide consolidated by forests should be very significant for discussions of global environmental problems. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.