声发射预报地震的岩体力学分析

岩体受压破坏是由于岩体内裂纹扩展及新的宏观裂纹产生不断积累的结果，大规模岩体受压破坏前会发生局部岩体的先前断裂破坏。裂纹起裂、快速扩展和止裂会产生声发射现象，局部岩体断裂破坏会产生强烈的声发射现象，通过对岩体声发射的监测分析可以预报受压岩体破坏的时间。因此，通过对地壳岩体声发射的监测分析，可以进行地震的短期和临震预报。通过对岩体受压应力分布规律的分析，得出通过监测地壳浅部地应力和地形变预报地震是没有实际意义的结论。

Rock Mechanic Analysis of Earthquake Prediction with Acoustic Emission

Rock failure under pressure is an accumulative result from the crack and macro-crack expansion inside the rock.Under the pressure,the early failure occurs locally in the rock before the large scale rock failure happens In the process of crack occurring,spreading and termination,the acoustic emission is generated.The local rock failure behavior will cause intense sound emission.The moment of rock failure under pressure can be predicted by way of monitoring and analyzing the rock acoustic emission behaviors.Therefore,based on the monitoring and analyzing about the acoustic emission of the earth crust,the short-term and impending forecast about the earthquake can be carried out.On the basis of the analysis of the stress distribution of the rock under pressure,it concludes that it is not practical to predict the earthquake through monitoring and analyzing the shallow crust stress and its deformation.