PCR-SPA-MC模型在滑坡稳定性分析中的应用

破坏概率与随机模拟理论在滑坡稳定性分析中得到了广泛地应用。然而，通过对传统破坏概率与随机模拟方法的具体操作发现，其没有考虑到因素相关性的影响，由此笔者引入主成分-逐步回归算法, 建立了PCR-SPA-MC耦合模型。并结合巴东县赵树岭滑坡研究，进行了工程实例分析。分析表明，PCR-SPA-MC模型给出的结果比传统破坏概率法得出的结果更为理想。

Application ofPCR-SPA-MC model to stability analysis of landslide

Of so many uncertainty methods, traditional destruction probability and random simulation theory is widely applied to stability analysis of landslide. However, in practical work, the effects from factor correlation are not considered in the method. Due to this limitation, principal component-stepwise regression algorithm is introduced, and PCR-SPA-MC coupling model is founded. Based on theoretical discussion, an engineering instance analysis of the Zhaoshuling landslide is presented. The analysis shows that the result from PCR-SPA-MC model is more ideal than that from traditional destruction probability method.