Conditional simulation as a tool for measuring uncertainties in petroleum exploration |
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Authors: | Guocheng Pan |
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Institution: | (1) GeoSight, Inc., 9125 S. Cromwell Lane, 80126 Highlands Ranch, Colorado |
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Abstract: | A fundamental task for petroleum exploration decision-making is to evaluate the uncertainty of well outcomes. The recent development
of geostatistical simulation techniques provides an effective means to the generation of a full uncertainty model for any
random variable. Sequential indicator simulation has been used as a tool to generate alternate, equal-probable stochastic
models, from which various representations of uncertainties can be created. These results can be used as input for the quantification
of various risks associated with a wildcat drilling program or the estimation of petroleum resources. A simple case study
is given to demonstrate the use of sequential indicator simulation. The data involves a set of wildcat wells in a gas play.
The multiple simulated stochastic models are then post-processed to characterize various uncertainties associated with drilling
outcomes. |
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Keywords: | Drilling uncertainty petroleum exploration conditional simulation |
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