| Abstract: | The accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters depends on the probability distribution model, and the calculation results of diff erent distribution models are often diff erent. It is very important to determine which distribution model is more stable and reasonable when extrapolating the recurrence level of the studied sea area. In this paper, we constructed an evaluation method of the overall uncertainty of the calculation results and a measurement of the uncertainty of the design parameters derivation model, by incorporating the infl uence of sample information on the model information entropy, such as sample size, degree of dispersion, and sampling error. Results show that the sample data size and the degree of dispersion are directly proportional to the information entropy. Within the same group of data, the maximum entropy distribution model has the lowest overall uncertainty, while the Gumbel distribution model has the largest overall uncertainty. In other words, the maximum entropy distribution model has good applicability in the accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters. |
