瞬时地壳运动与地震短临预报

本文在利用卫星红外扫描仪观测资料的基础上，探讨地震前低空大气的增温是地壳瞬时运动的表现，也是地球－大气耦合现象。通过分析，给出瞬时地壳运动引起增温的三种可能机制：岩石的辐射能量增加；岩层中ＣＨ＿４、ＣＯ＿２等气体溢出和太阳辐射导致增温；ＣＨ＿４、ＣＯ＿２含量增高和低空电场异常激发。并通过某些震例的增温展布形态及规律，恢复震前应力场和热增温演化特征：我国大陆东部ＮＮＥ方向为主压应力方向，大陆东南沿海主压应力方向ＳＮ向，而我国大陆西部地区主压应力方向为ＳＮ向，在青藏高原的东北部派生主压应力为ＮＥ向。最后，介绍了这几年试验性预报效果检验：４年多总共预报３２次，其中虚报２次，７次较准，１７次较好，６次较差，漏报强震８次。最后涉及到地震孕育、发生过程中的机理的初步研究结果。

INSTANTANEOUS CRUST MOVEMENT AND IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE-PREDICTION

On the basis of satellite infrared observation.we conclude that the near-surfaceatmosphere temperature increase before an earthquake is the manifestation of the instanta-neous crust movement and phenomena of coupling between the solid earth and atmo-sphere.We give three possible temperature increase mechanics caused by this movement:(1) The energy radiation increase of the rock.(2) The degassing of CH_4,CO_2 from therock into the atmosphere and those gases excited by the solar radiation.(3) Those gasesexcited by the near-surface atmosphere electric anomaly.By analysing the form and regu-lar pattern of the temperature anomalies,we recovered the pre-earthquake stress field :The stride of principal stress field in the east part of China is NNE,in the southeast partof China it is NW,while in the western China it is SN,and in the northeast part of Tibetit is NE.We also evaluate our earthquake predictions these years:Among the 32 predic-tions we made during the past 4 years,7 of them are good,17 of them are basically good,6 of them are not so good,and 2 of them are false predictions,8 strong earth-quakes weremissed.At the end,we present the preliminary results of our research on earthquakemechanism.