冰冻圈旅游经济区发展水平及影响因素分析

大香格里拉地区是我国典型的冰冻圈旅游区，冰冻圈资源丰富，且旅游开发较好。以大香格里拉地区为例，运用熵值法、综合指数评价模型与地理探测器相结合的分析方法，对2008—2017年大香格里拉旅游经济区的发展水平及主要影响因素进行了分析，并提出相应政策建议。结果表明：（1）2008—2017年发展水平明显提高，但受冰冻圈资源变化影响较大；（2）该地区以中等偏下发展水平为主，各地区发展不平衡，发展水平差异呈现先扩大后缩小的趋势；（3）冰川面积、冰川面积覆盖率、人均全社会消费品零售总额、旅行社数量和城镇化率是影响大香格里拉地区发展水平的关键因子，经济和社会发展水平的迅速提升，在一定程度上抵消了冰冻圈资源萎缩的负面影响。基于此，应严格遵循生态保护红线，从实际出发，支持各地区发挥比较优势，利用当前冰冻圈资源优势，重点培育冰雪旅游产业，以促进大香格里拉地区发展进程。

Analysis on the development level and influencing factors of the cryosphere tourism economic zone

The Greater Shangri-La Region is a typical cryosphere tourist area in China. This article evaluated the development level of the Greater Shangri-La Tourism Economic Zone from 2008 to 2017 by using the entropy method and the comprehensive index evaluation model. With the help of geographic detectors method and ArcGIS tools, the main influencing factors are deeply analyzed. At last, corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The results show that:(1) From 2008 to 2017, the development level of the Greater Shangri-La Region has been continuously improved, with an increase of 23.08%, which is greatly affected by the change of cryospheric resources, and the development prospect is not optimistic. (2) The study area is dominated by the middle and lower development level. The development of each region is unbalanced, and the development level difference shows a trend of first expanding and then shrinking. (3)The glacier area, glacier area coverage, total retail sales of consumer goods per capita, the number of travel agencies and urbanization rate are the main controlling factors that affect the development of the Greater Shangri-La Region. The emergence of the economic and social development level in the later period has reduced the negative impact of cryosphere resource shrinking to a certain extent. Based on this, we should strictly follow the red line of ecological protection, proceed from reality, support various regions to give play to their comparative advantages, take advantage of the current cryosphere resources, and focus on cultivating the ice and snow tourism industry to promote the development of the Greater Shangri-La Region.