基于改进鹰鸽模型的南沙群岛岛礁争端及其影响因素分析

南海地区岛礁的争端博弈影响国家安全和地区发展，基于改进的鹰鸽模型，综合地理因素和国家的对抗偏好对南沙群岛岛礁争端的博弈情况进行分析。结果表明：①南沙群岛北部海域岛礁的平均地理价值和竞争激烈程度较高，中国、越南和菲律宾在此区域均有控制岛礁且国家之间地缘位势的非对称性接近，未来可能成为权益争端的热点区域；②中国和声索国选择合作的概率受岛礁地理价值、国家在岛礁的地缘位势、冲突成本以及对抗偏好共同影响，地理价值、对抗偏好与选择合作的概率呈负相关；冲突成本与选择合作的概率呈正相关；国家在岛礁的地缘位势接近时，选择合作的概率最小；随着地缘位势差距增大，非对称性增强，选择合作的概率上升；③在南沙岛礁争端中，中国与马来西亚合作概率较大，与越南合作不稳定，与菲律宾合作概率最小。

Analysis on the disputes over islands and reefs in the Nansha Islands and its influencing factors based on an improved Hawk-Dove model

The dispute game of islands and reefs in the South China Sea affects national security and regional development.Based on an improved Hawk-Dove model, comprehensive geographic factors and national antagonistic preferences were used to analyze the game trends of island and reef disputes in the Nansha Islands.Results showed that: (1) the islands and reefs in the northern part of the Nansha Islands have high average geographic value and competition intensity. China, Vietnam and the Philippines all control the islands and reefs in this area, and the asymmetry of geo-potential between three countries is close.This area may become a hot spot for rights disputes in the future.(2) The probability of cooperation between China and the claimant countries is affected by geographic value of islands and reefs, country's geo-potential, conflict costs, and the states' antagonistic preferences.Geographic value and the states' antagonistic preferences are negatively correlated with the probability of cooperation; conflict cost is positively correlated with probability of cooperation.When the geo-potential of countries on islands and reefs is close, the probability of cooperation is the smallest; as the gap of geo-potential increases, asymmetry increases, the probability of cooperation finally increases.(3) In the dispute over Nansha islands and reefs, China and Malaysia have the highest probability of cooperation, but the cooperation with Vietnam is unstable, and the cooperation with Philippines is the smallest.