巴音布鲁克山区暖季人工增水作业区域的合理性分析

受经济、技术、装备等影响,地面人工增水作业更具普适性,但其精准作业难度高,导致人工增水作业效果的提升较为困难。为此,基于2017—2022年5—9月巴音布鲁克山区18个观测站点的逐日气象资料,利用协同克里金插值法,K-Means聚类分组法,基于降水特征的空间分布,从宏观层面上对人工增水作业布局的合理性开展分析,以期科学化开展增水作业,从而有效提高作业效益。结果显示：(1)在空间插值中,小雨的相对误差最小,插值精度最高,而大雨相反,导致“平滑效应”明显,不确定性较大。(2)暖季月均降水量自西向东呈减少趋势,高值区多位于中部和东北部沿山区域,发生的降水事件以小雨为主,而大雨虽然频率低,次数少,但和小雨一样是影响降水量变化的主要量级。(3)现用人工增水作业点的适宜性大多一般,受小雨和中雨月均频率的空间分布影响较大,而在宏观地理上,西部作业点布设的适宜性较东部高。(4)降水空间分布受西风环流和地势影响较大,因而作业布局合理性上,西部区域和北部区域最好。(5)根据地理特点,北部地势复杂,适宜选择西低东高的山面建立地面烟炉,西部地势平坦,适宜建立作业方向为NNW的流动火箭。

Research the layout of artificial precipitation enhancement in Bayanbulak mountains area in warm seasons based on Collaborative Kriging Model

Artificial precipitation enhancement was affected by geographical, economic, technical and other effects, the mainly mode of operation was ground, but the precise operation was hard to achieve, which would lead to the improvement of artificial water increase effect was difficult. Therefore, based on the daily meteorological data from 18 observation stations in the Bayanbuluk mountains area, China during May to September form 2017—2022, the spatial distribution of precipitation characteristics was analyzed by the Collaborative Kriging (Co-Kriging) method and K-Means clustering grouping method, and analyzed from the rationality and scientific on the layout of artificial precipitation enhancement operations at the macro perspective, thereby could improve efficiency. The results show that: (1) The small rain had the highest interpolation accuracy and the smallest relative error, while heavy rain is the opposite, leading to a significant "smoothing effect" and greater uncertainty in the spatial interpolation. (2) In the warm season, the average monthly precipitation decreases from west to east, with high values mostly located in the central and northeastern mountainous areas, and the rainfall events were mainly characterized by small rain, that although heavy rain had a low probability and occurs less frequently, it was still a major factor affecting the variation in precipitation. (3) Affected by the occurrence probability of small rain and moderate rain on the spatial distribution, the suitability of the current artificial precipitation enhancement operation points was mostly generality, and the western region was higher than that of the eastern region in terms of macro geography. (4) The spatial distribution of precipitation is greatly influenced by the westerly circulation and topography, what the rationality of operational layout was higher in the western region and in the northern region. (5) Based on geographical characteristics, the northern region with complex topography, that was suitable to establish ground smoke furnaces with a west-low-east-high orientation, and the western region with flat terrain, that was suitable to establish mobile rockets with an NNW operating direction.