1976年云南龙陵7．4级地震序列分析

地震成核是地震孕育过程中的一个至关重要的阶段，加速是成核过程的一个属性，也是地震失稳破裂的一个必要条件．地震加速释放是成核在脆性层中的大地震的普遍前兆，且可将该加速过程简要地概括为地震释放速率正比于失稳破裂剩余时间的负幂．基于这一原理，对１９７６年５月２９日云南龙陵Ｍ_ｓ７．４级地震序列进行回顾性分析，表明主震及后续显著地震的失稳破裂时间和震级可成功地被估算，但要求所测系数ｒ^２

ANALYSIS OF THE 1976 LONGLING, YUNNAN,EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE OF M_S 7.4

Earthquake nucleation is a supremely important stage in the seismogenic prooesses.The acceleration is a property of nucleating process and is a necessary condition of earthquake failure,too.The seismic accelerating releasion is a universal precursory that a great earthquakes nucleate within the brittle seismogenic layer.This accellerating precess canbe summarized briefly as the seismic releasing rate to be proportional to the inverse power of the remaining time to failure.Based on this princople, the foreshock sequenc of Longling earthquake, Yunna, of May 29, 1976,of M_ｓ 7.4 was back analysed, It is stated clearly that the time-to-failure and magnitudes of main shock audits following significant shock can be predicted with success until the maximum coefficient r² must be obtained.