Simulation of the hydrogeologic effects of oil-shale mining on the neighbouring wetland water balance: case study in north-eastern Estonia

The water balance of wetlands plays an integral role in their function. Developments adjacent to wetlands can affect their water balance through impacts on groundwater flow and increased discharge in the area, and they can cause lowering of the wetland water table. A 430 km² area was selected for groundwater modelling to asses the effect of underground mining on the water balance of wetlands in north-eastern Estonia. A nature conservation area (encompassing Selisoo bog) is within 3 km of an underground oil-shale mine. Two future mining scenarios with different areal extents of mining were modeled and compared to the present situation. Results show that the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the subsurface is of critical importance to potential wetland dewatering as a result of mining. Significant impact on the Selisoo bog water balance will be caused by the approaching mine but there will be only minor additional impacts from mining directly below the bog. The major impact will arise before that stage, when the underground mine extension reaches the border of the nature conservation area; since the restriction of activities in this area relates to the ground surface, the conservation area’s border is not sufficiently protective in relation to underground development.