On the secular decrease in the semimajor axis of Lageos's orbit

The semimajor axis of the Lageos satellite's orbit is decreasing secularly at the rate of 1.1 mm day^–1. Ten possible mechanisms are investigated to discover which one (s), if any, might be causing the orbit to decay. Six of the mechanisms, resonance with the Earth's gravitational field, gravitational radiation, the Poynting-Robertson effect, transfer of spin angular momentum to the orbital angular momentum, drag from near-earth dust, and atmospheric drag by neutral hydrogen are ruled out because they are too small or require unacceptable assumptions to account for the observed rate of decay. Three other mechanisms, the Yarkovsky effect, the Schach effect, and terrestrial radiation pressure give perturbations whose characteristic signatures do not agree with the observed secular decrease (terrestrial radiation pressure appears to be too small in any case); hence they are also ruled out. Charged particle drag with the ions at Lageos's altitude is probably the principal cause of the orbital decay. An estimate of charged particle drag based upon laboratory experiments and satellite measurements of ion number densities accounts for 60 percent of the observed rate of decrease in the semimajor axis, assuming a satellite potential of –1V. This figure is in good agreement with other estimates based on charge drag theory. A satellite potential of –1.5V will explain the entire decay rate. Atmospheric drag from neutral hydrogen appears to be the next largest effect, explaining about 10 percent of the observed orbital decay rate.