东北地区乡村性评价及时空分异

以县域为基本空间单元,构建了刻画乡村性的指标体系,定量测度了2000年、2004年、2008年、2012年东北地区149个县域乡村性指数,并采用ESDA空间统计方法,探索东北地区县域乡村性的时空演变特征。结果表明：① 东北地区县域乡村性指数普遍较高,均值呈现波动下降的态势。② 县域乡村性指数呈现南低北高,逐步极化的空间格局,且与其到区域性中心城市的距离成正比,呈现环状递增的空间分布格局。③ 县域乡村性趋于空间集聚,且随时间推移,低值和低值、高值和高值县域的空间集聚增强;冷点、次冷点、热点、次热点区域在空间上均呈现“北上”发展态势,温和区域在空间上呈现“南下”的发展态势。从国家政策、产业结构、农业投入和资本投入等视角,分析了乡村性时空演变的原因。

Spatio-temporal dynamics of rurality in Northeast China

Taking the counties as the basic spatial unit, we examine the spatio-temporal dynaimc of rurality in Northeast China by evaluating the rurality indexes quantitatively of the counties in the years of 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012, and then divide the counties into five types such as the weakest rurality, weaker rurality, moderate rurality, stronger rurality and the strongest rurality. Moreover, with the help of ArcGIS and Exploratory Spatial data Analysis method (ESDA), we identify and analyze the "hot spots" and 'cold spots' areas of the rurality in different periods, as well as the pattern of spatio-temporal evolution. We find that the rurality indexes of the counties in Northeast China are generally high and tend to decline from 2000 to 2012, and the rurality indexes of the counties in the northern part are higher than those of the southern part, which are directly proportional to the distance of its regional central city and takes on the pattern of circularity, that is, the closer to its central city, the smaller the rurality index is. The counties whose rurality indexes are similar tend to be agglomerated, and the counties with low-low or high-high values tend to be strengthened in spatial agglomeration from 2000 to 2012, accompanied by the transformation of the "hot spots" to the northern part and the "cold spots" to the southern part. We also find that national policies, industrial structure, agricultural mechanization, increase of chemical fertilizer, and foreign direct investment are the primary factors affecting rurality and its variation of space structure.