| 舟山市汛期降水量预报方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 王雷,曹美兰. 舟山市汛期降水量预报方法[J]. 气象, 2001, 27(9): 39-42 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王雷 曹美兰 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江舟山市气象台;浙江舟山市气象台 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省自然科学基金资助项目 (4 980 2 2 )资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 利用基于预测误差平方和 ( PRESS)准则的逐步回归分析和基于残差平方和( RSS)准则的逐步回归分析建立了舟山市 3个县区站汛期 ( 5～ 9月 )降水量的预报模型 ,并对两种方法的预测结果进行预报集成 ,经试报和预报检验表明 ,该模型的预测效果较好
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| 关 键 词： | PRESS准则 RSS准则 逐步回归 汛期 降水量预报 |
On Forecasting of Rainfall over Zhoushan in Rainy Season |
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| Wang Lei Cao Meilan. On Forecasting of Rainfall over Zhoushan in Rainy Season[J]. Meteorological Monthly, 2001, 27(9): 39-42 |
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| Authors: | Wang Lei Cao Meilan |
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| Abstract: | With stepwise regression analysis on the basis of the criterion from Prediction Error Sum of Squares (PRESS) and on the basis of the criterion from Residual Sum of Squares (RSS),the forecasting model of precipitation over Zhoushan in Rainy season (May to September) were studied.Moreover,the scheme of forecast ensemble by forecast results of two predictive method is proposed.Results show that effects of the prediction of this scheme are superior. |
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| Keywords: | PRESS criterion RSS criterion stepwise regression rainfall |
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