Response of peatland development and carbon cycling to climate change: a dynamic system modeling approach

Peatlands contain approximately 25% of the total soil organic carbon, despite covering only 3% of earth’s land surface. The ecological, hydrological and biogeochemical functions of peatlands are tightly coupled to climate. Therefore, both direct human impacts and indirect effects of climate change can threaten the ecological function of peatlands through changes in hydrology. However, little is known about how peatland ecosystems, and specifically their biogeochemistry, carbon cycling, and development, may respond to climatic change. In this study, the Peat Accumulation Model was adapted to investigate the response of peatland development and carbon cycling to climatic change through simulating changes in precipitation and temperature at different stages of peatland development history. The warming and wetting were imposed on this system at 10,000 years since its initialization (mid-development stage) and at 20,000 years since its initialization (late-development stage). Here, it was revealed that peatlands can switch between carbon sinks and sources suddenly, but the extent to which the change takes place depends on the developmental stage of peatland ecosystems. The simulation results for the late-development stage showed that peatlands could function as carbon sources once warming and wetting was imposed but that peatland ecosystems during the mid-development stage can still function as carbon sinks under warming and wetting conditions. Moreover, peatland ecosystems have self-regulation capabilities so that they can go back to their normal ecological and biogeochemical functions under newly stabilized climates. Also, it is the change in temperature that results in the fundamental change in peatland development and carbon cycling. This study indicates that the response of peatland ecosystems to climate change is largely determined by their developmental stages.