CMIP6情景中主要温室气体和气溶胶排放强度的时空分布特征分析

基于不同共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs）形成的8组最新的未来可能情景（SSPx-y情景），被用于第六次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6），以据此来预估未来气候变化的可能幅度和趋势。本文主要对比分析了8组SSPx-y新情景中主要温室气体和气溶胶排放数据的基准年排放强度分布、未来排放强度的时空变化、以及在6个典型区域排放强度的逐年变化等特征。结果表明:二氧化碳（CO₂）、甲烷（CH₄）、黑碳（BC）、二氧化硫（SO₂）在基准年的排放强度高值区都位于东亚和南亚。相比于基准年，2100年CO₂和CH₄在高和低辐射强迫情景下表现出的排放强度变化有显著差异。此外，所有情景下2100年的BC和SO₂全球平均排放强度都弱于基准年的排放强度。在时间变化上，随着生物质能碳捕获与封存技术的不断进步，所有地区在4组不超过3.4 W/m2的低辐射强迫情景下，CO₂排放强度到2100年都呈现负值。其中，南美洲的负排放最强，2100年在SSP5-3.4情景下该地区的排放强度为－0.3 kg m－2 a－1。最后，对比东亚和南亚排放强度的逐年变化可以发现，在各情景所描述的未来发展过程中，东亚的减排行动的成效都要好于南亚。

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics of the Emission Intensities of Several Major Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols under CMIP6 Scenarios

Eight latest scenarios (SSPx-y scenarios), which are based on different shared socioeconomic paths (SSPs) are adopted in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to project the probable magnitude and trend of future climate changes. In this article, the emission datasets of various major greenhouse gases and aerosols under the eight SSPx-y scenarios are analyzed, including emission intensities in the reference year (i.e., 2015), spatial and temporal variations of future emission intensities, and yearly change in emission intensities for the six typical selected sub-regions. Results show that the strongest emission intensities of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), black carbon (BC), and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) are distributed mainly in East and South Asia in 2015. In comparison with the reference year, variations in the intensities of CO₂ and CH₄ emissions in 2100 show significant differences between the high and low radiative forcing scenarios. In addition, the average global emission intensities of BC and SO₂ in 2100 are weaker than those in the reference year under all scenarios. In terms of temporal variation, such as the development of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), the values of CO₂ emission intensities in all sub-regions become negative in 2100 for four low radiative forcing scenarios (i.e., radiative forcing values≤3.4 W/m2). On the other hand, the net intensity of negative emissions in South America is －0.3 kg m－2 a－1 under the SSP5-3.4 scenario in 2100, which is lower than that in all other sub-regions. Finally, a comparison of the variations in emission intensities in East and South Asia reveals that emission reduction actions in East Asia play a more effective role than those in South Asia in the future development described in all scenarios.