| 改进的修正预测法预报电离层 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘军,柴洪洲,常宜峰,唐江波. 改进的修正预测法预报电离层[J]. 测绘学院学报, 2011, 0(1) |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘军 柴洪洲 常宜峰 唐江波 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 信息工程大学测绘学院;海军海洋测绘研究所;78155部队; |
| |
| 基金项目： | 信息工程大学测绘学院硕士学位论文创新与创优基金资助项目(S2010-01) |
| |
| 摘 要： | 利用自回归移动平均ARMA模型的线性最小方差预测法预报电离层存在的主要问题是极值点处预测误差较大。通过对模型阶数上限及定阶准则的选取进行实验分析,确定了合适的模型阶数并建立了相应模型。修正预测法可利用新信息对线性最小方差预测法的预测结果进行修正。这是一种短期预报方法,每次向前预测一步即2 h,但结果并不理想。考虑到电离层变化的周期性,为了进一步减小极值点处预测误差,提出了改进的修正预测法。实验表明,改进的修正预测法预测结果与原始值符合较好。
|
| 关 键 词： | 自回归移动平均 电离层 垂直总电子含量 线性最小方差预测 修正预测 |
Predicting Ionospheric Using Improved Correcting Prediction Method |
| |
| LIU Jun,CHAI Hong-zhou,,CHANG Yi-feng,TANG Jiang-bo. Predicting Ionospheric Using Improved Correcting Prediction Method[J]. Journal of Institute of Surveying and Mapping, 2011, 0(1) |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Jun CHAI Hong-zhou CHANG Yi-feng TANG Jiang-bo |
| |
| Affiliation: | LIU Jun1,CHAI Hong-zhou1,2,CHANG Yi-feng1,TANG Jiang-bo3 (1.Institute of Surveying and Mapping,Information Engineer University,Zhengzhou 450052,China,2.Naval Institute of Hydrographic Surveying and Chartiing,Tianjin 300061,3.78155 Troops,Chengdu 610036,China) |
| |
| Abstract: | Ionospheric can be predicted by using linearity least variance prediction method of ARMA model.However,it has a problem that large predicting error may exist at the extreme.Analysis of the choosen of upper limit order and order determining rule,appropriate order was confirmed and corresponding model was found.Correcting prediction can modify the predicting result of linearity least variance prediction.But it is a short time predicting model,forecast one step about two hours each time,and the result is not i... |
| |
| Keywords: | auto regression moving average(ARMA) ionospheric vertical total electron content(VTEC) linearity least variance prediction correcting prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
|
