浅丘地带主要气象灾害特征及风险分析——以绵西高速公路为例

本文通过应用绵西高速公路(S32)交通管制台账资料、沿途气象观测站数据、通过统计学、GIS区划、专家打分等方式进行研究分析,得到绵西高速公路道路管制情况、灾害性天气直接影响下交通管制情况分布特征、主要气象灾害风险等级：1)绵西高速公路运营以来至2021年,受灾害性天气及引发的次生灾害造成的交通管制占比77.7%,主要原因是大雾天气、强降水及引发的路面积水；季节天气影响交通管制程度由高到低分别为冬、夏、秋、春。2)2019至2021年绵西高速公路由大雾造成交通管制的平均时长较强降水更长,发生时段更集中。大雾造成交通管制持续时间平均时长为5小时,管制开始时间主要集中在00至08时,解除时间在07至11时；强降水直接造成交通管制持续时间平均时长为3小时,管制开始时间为08至10时和15时至21时,结束时间在10到17时。利用成果能为交通运维工作提供有效的决策参考意见,有力保障道路安全畅通,最大限度地减少因灾害性天气造成的交通事故发生,有利于提高生产效率和社会经济效益。

Characteristics And Risk Analysis of main meteorological disasters On Mianxi expressway

Mianxi Expressway (S32) is a provincial expressway built and opened to traffic during the 13th Five-Year Plan period of Sichuan Province. It connects Mianyang city and Nanchong City, two important regional central cities in Chengdu-Chongqing metropolitan circle, and connects five expressways along the highway, which is an important traffic lifeline in eastern and northern Sichuan. This paper analyzed and sorted out traffic control ledger data, meteorological observation station data along the way, major traffic accident data and NCEP1°×1°reanalysis of upper-air data by visiting and investigating front-line operation and management personnel and searching historical data, and it summarized the road control situation of Mianxi expressway, the distribution of traffic control characteristics under the direct influence of disastrous weather, the analysis of main meteorological disaster risk regionalization and the main meteorological disaster risk early warning index.